方管社会库存扭转3个月上升趋势，出现首度下降；环保再度趋严，近期多地发布限产通知；两会定调，基建力度再次加码；天气回暖，下游需求陆续启动。随着利好消息的不断传出，钢价会不会一改年后震荡模式，出现大幅上涨呢？截止2019年3月8日，据兰格钢铁云商平台监测数据显示，全国29个重点城市方管社会库存量为1623.9万吨，较上周减少19.1万吨，周环比下降1.2%，年同比下降8.0%；方管社会库存出现春节后首次回落。从数据上可以看出，今年库存下降时间与去年基本一致，而且今年的库存的高点较去年有所下降，而且降速要高于去年。随着库存的下降，对于钢价形成了一定的支撑。
The social inventory of Fangguan has reversed the three-month upward trend and declined for the first time; the environmental protection has become stricter again, and recently many production restriction notices have been issued; the two sessions have been set, and the capital construction efforts have been increased again; the weather has warmed up, and downstream demand has started one after another. With the continuous spread of good news, will steel prices rise sharply after a year of shocks? As of March 8, 2019, according to the monitoring data of Langer Iron and Steel Cloud Merchant Platform, the social inventory of square managers in 29 key cities in China was 16.239 million tons, down by 191,000 tons compared with last week, down by 1.2% on the circumference ratio and 8.0% on the year-on-year basis; the social inventory of square managers fell for the first time after the Spring Festival. From the data, we can see that this year's inventory decline time is basically the same as last year, and this year's inventory highs have declined from last year, and the decline rate is higher than last year. With the decline of inventory, steel prices have formed a certain support. 环保政策也呈现趋严的状况，在两会之前，唐山市便发布相应的环保停产令，其中烧结限产，轧钢停产。随着两会开幕空气转好，本该解除的限产令却直接转变成延长停产令；日前，唐山印发《3月份大气污染防治强化管控措施实施方案》，管控时间为2019年3月1日至31日。河北武安等钢铁行业自3月3日至3月31日错峰生产、3月份钢厂集中检修等，对于方管产量起到了一定影响。
The environmental protection policy is also becoming stricter. Before the two sessions, Tangshan City issued corresponding environmental protection shutdown orders, including sintering production restriction and rolling production shutdown. As the air improved at the opening of the two sessions, the production restriction order that should have been lifted was directly transformed into a prolonged stop-production order. Recently, Tangshan issued the "Implementation Plan of Enhanced Control Measures for Air Pollution Prevention and Control in March", which lasted from March 1 to 31, 2019. Hebei Wuan and other iron and steel industries from March 3 to March 31 staggered peak production, March steel plant centralized overhaul, etc., has played a certain impact on square pipe production.

同时，受环保限产政策趋严影响，本周部分地区钢厂检修快速增加，国内中小钢企高炉开工率降速加大，增加区域主要以山西和河北地区为主。截止，2019年3月8日，兰格钢铁云商平台调查的全国百家中小型钢铁企业中，有75家钢厂113座高炉进行检修(含停产及焖炉设备，下同)，比上周增11座(本周11座高炉新增检修，0座高炉复产)，检修高炉容积为94310立方米，比上周增加9140立方米，按容积计算百家中小钢铁企业高炉开工率为74.26%，比上周降2.49个百分点，比去年同期高1个百分点。预计今年一季度全国钢产量与去年同期相比增量有限。
At the same time, affected by the stricter policy of environmental protection and production restriction, steel mill overhaul in some areas increased rapidly this week, and blast furnace start-up rate of domestic small and medium-sized steel enterprises increased, mainly in Shanxi and Hebei. As of March 8, 2019, among the 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises surveyed by Lange Iron and Steel Yunchang Platform, 113 blast furnaces in 75 steel plants have been repaired (including shutdown and baking equipment, the same below), 11 more than last week (11 new blast furnaces are repaired this week, 0 blast furnaces are re-produced). The volume of the repaired blast furnaces is 94310 cubic meters, 9140 cubic meters more than last week, and 100 small and medium-sized iron and steel are calculated by volume. The blast furnace start-up rate of enterprises is 74.26%, which is 2.49 percentage points lower than that of last week and 1 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year. In the first quarter of this year, the national steel production is expected to increase by a limited amount compared with the same period last year.

此外，在两会工作报告中，强调持续推进污染防治工作，要改革完善相关制度，协调推动高质量发展与生态环境保护。对于钢铁行业实行超低排放改造，实施重污染行业达标排放改造。加大“破、立、降”力度，推进钢铁、煤炭行业市场化去产能。
In addition, in the report on the work of the two sessions, it was emphasized that the work of pollution prevention and control should be continuously promoted, relevant systems should be reformed and improved, and high-quality development and ecological environment protection should be coordinated and promoted. For the iron and steel industry, the ultra-low emission transformation will be carried out, and the heavy pollution industry will be reformed to meet the discharge standards. We will intensify efforts to "break, stand and fall" and promote market-oriented production of iron and steel and coal industries.

基建方面，今年的两会工作报告中提出，将新增高速铁路运营里程4100公里，新建改建高速公路6000多公里、农村公路30多万公里。并合理扩大有效投资，完成铁路投资8000亿元、公路水运投资1.8万亿元，再开工一批重大水利工程。今年中央预算内投资安排5776亿元，比去年增加400亿元。
In terms of infrastructure construction, the report on the work of this year's NPC and CPPCC sessions proposed that the new high-speed railway operation mileage will be 4100 kilometers, the new highway will be rebuilt more than 6,000 kilometers, and the rural highway will be more than 300,000 kilometers. We will rationally expand effective investment, complete 800 billion yuan in railway investment, 1.8 trillion yuan in highway and waterway investment, and start a number of major water conservancy projects. This year, the central budget allocated 577.6 billion yuan for investment, an increase of 40 billion yuan over last year.

从需求方面来看，虽然年后部分地区天气情况不佳，雨雪天气频繁。但是近期天气逐渐转好，随着气温回升，下游项目也陆续开工，需求将不断增加。从兰格钢铁网监测的北京建材市场日成交量来看，3月份北京建材市场日成交量最高已攀升至9500吨，较去年同期高点超2000余吨。
From the demand point of view, although the weather in some areas after the year is not good, the rain and snow weather is frequent. But the weather is getting better in the near future. With the temperature rising, downstream projects are also starting, and demand will continue to increase. From the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market monitored by Langer Iron and Steel Network, the daily turnover of Beijing building materials market in March has climbed to 9,500 tons, which is more than 2,000 tons higher than the same period last year.

那么后期钢价是否能大幅上涨，出现一飞冲天的现象呢？
Then, can steel prices rise substantially in the later period, and there will be a phenomena of skyrocketing?

分析师马力表示，从宏观经济、货币政策、中美贸易趋向合作、库存压力较小等方面来看，今年3-4月份，国内方管市场环境好于上年同期，总体价格以稳为主，很难出现大涨，但也不具备大跌的条件。
Analyst Ma Li said that from the macroeconomic, monetary policy, Sino-US trade trend cooperation, less inventory pressure and other aspects, in March-April this year, the domestic market environment is better than the same period last year, the overall price is stable, it is difficult to rise sharply, but also do not have the conditions for a sharp fall.

分析师马广慧表示，目前要重点关注需求启动、去库存速度、钢厂产量以及环保的实际落地情况，同时对于期货的移仓换月以及市场情绪也要多加关注。在目前需求没有被证伪的情况下，从中长期来看，市场震荡上行的机会仍然存在。
Ma Guanghui, an analyst, said that at present, we should focus on demand start-up, the speed of inventory removal, steel plant production and the actual landing of environmental protection. At the same time, we should pay more attention to the transfer of futures and market sentiment. In the absence of falsification of current demand, in the medium and long term, there is still an upward opportunity for market shocks.

方管